Assumption Ledger

v11 planning assumptions (A1-A16) — track validation status and evidence

16
Total Assumptions
0
Validated
0
Invalidated
16
Pending

GEO / AI Citation

A1

Structured data (JSON-LD) increases AI citation rate 2.5x

JSON-LD Dataset schema on stat pages increases the rate at which AI systems (Perplexity, ChatGPT, Gemini) cite Lighthouse data by 2.5x compared to unstructured content.

Untested Confidence: MEDIUM Phase 0A
Update status...
A2

Answer capsules increase AI citation rate 40%

Pre-formatted answer capsules (concise stat + context in first paragraph) increase AI citation probability by ~40% compared to stats buried in long-form content.

Untested Confidence: MEDIUM Phase 0A
Update status...
A3

Schema + clean structure yields 2.8x citation vs unstructured

Combined JSON-LD schema markup plus clean HTML structure yields 2.8x AI citation rate vs. unstructured blog posts with identical data.

Untested Confidence: MEDIUM Phase 0A
Update status...
A4

Perplexity 3x ranking multiplier for AI/tech/business topics

Perplexity applies an approximate 3x ranking multiplier for authoritative sources in AI, tech, and business verticals — disproportionately favoring data-rich sites.

Untested Confidence: LOW Week 8
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A5

Reddit accounts for 46.7% of Perplexity citations

Reddit content represents 46.7% of Perplexity's citation sources, making Reddit presence a high-ROI investment for AI discoverability.

Untested Confidence: HIGH Already validated
Update status...

Business Impact

A6

Revenue/cost translations require formula + parameters + confidence band

Every stat published with a business impact translation must carry the full formula, input parameters, and confidence band. Naked claims without methodology destroy credibility.

Untested Confidence: HIGH Ongoing
Update status...
A7

40% resources to business nodes is high-ROI

Allocating 40% of content resources to business impact nodes (CEO-facing, revenue-focused) yields disproportionate engagement and conversion compared to pure data nodes.

Untested Confidence: LOW Months 2-4
Update status...

Platform Volumes

A10

X/Twitter 30-50 posts/day within API safety

Posting 30-50 times per day on X stays within the 3,000/month API cap and platform ToS. Mix of original posts, replies, and quote tweets.

Untested Confidence: HIGH API-documented
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A8

LinkedIn 10-15 comments/day is safe long-term

Sustained LinkedIn commenting at 10-15 per day (after 12-week warm-up starting at 3-5/day) stays within platform safety limits and avoids account restrictions.

Untested Confidence: MED-HIGH Weeks 1-12
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A9

Reddit 5-8 comments/day is safe with 90-day warm-up

A single Reddit account posting 5-8 data-backed comments per day (after 90-day manual warm-up building karma) avoids shadowban and rate limiting.

Untested Confidence: MEDIUM Days 90-180
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Compound Growth

A11

Blog 2-4 posts/day maintains quality

Publishing 2-4 data-backed blog posts per day (reduced from 4-8) maintains quality standards while building a comprehensive stat corpus. Quality Fortress catches degradation.

Untested Confidence: MEDIUM Months 1-2
Update status...
A12

5-15 proactive journalist pitches/day is sustainable

Sending 5-15 proactive data pitches to journalists per day (reduced from 30-60) plus unlimited inbound responses maintains relationship quality and avoids spam reputation.

Untested Confidence: MED-HIGH Months 3-4
Update status...

Explosion Layer

A13

Cascade velocity scoring improves impact 2x

Weighting influence graph nodes by cascade velocity (reply tree depth x reshare speed x audience overlap) improves content targeting effectiveness by approximately 2x.

Untested Confidence: LOW Months 2-4
Update status...
A14

Paid amplification of top 5% posts improves reach 3-5x

Spending $200-500/month boosting the top 5% organic performers (by engagement rate) to CEO audiences delivers 3-5x additional reach per dollar.

Untested Confidence: MEDIUM Months 3-4
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A15

1 flagship report compresses credibility 3-6 months

Publishing one flagship survey/report ($5-10K) in month 1 compresses the credibility timeline by 3-6 months compared to organic authority building alone.

Untested Confidence: LOW-MED Months 2-3
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A16

Podcast appearances compress credibility by 6 months

Appearing on 8-10 relevant podcasts within 90 days compresses the credibility timeline by approximately 6 months. Requires Podcast Pitcher agent generating 3 pitches/week.

Untested Confidence: LOW Months 2-4
Update status...